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by Dan O'Brien
As the drama unfolds this
Sunday in the aptly named Harbowl,
there is something fascinating brewing in the background, estranged match-ups
that seem ripe for comparisons. Leading up to Super Sunday, we here at Empirical are going to provide our two
cents about the marquee match-ups in this brother bowl. Joe Flacco has been
called many things, chief among them "weak under pressure" and a "loser" for not
making it to the Big Show. This has now changed, right before a contract year I
might add, in that it certainly puts into perspective a winning quarterback who had
yet to win it all. Colin Kaepernick was at the center of a QB controvery in the
Bay that turned out to be less a controversy and more a misunderstanding by the
public as to what was in the best interest of the team.
The proof, as they say, is in the
pudding.
Joe Flacco
The 6’6” quarterback from the
University of Delaware has over the course of his short career (starting in
2008) racked up some impressive statistics: an average completion rating of
60.5 percent; 102 touchdowns to only 56 interceptions. The worst season under
Joe Flacco the Ravens went only 9-7, a telling statistics given the presence of a playoff
wrecking ball like the Steelers being in the same division. What is most
interesting about this run of winning seasons (every season since Flacco has
started has been a winning season) is the lack of jewelry, the true testament
to the efficacy and noteworthiness of a quarterback. Another notable Flacco fact, despite not appearing in the big game at season's end, he does hold the NFL record for most playoff road wins. While his averages are
striking when juxtaposed with the same quarterback class, which includes
another perennial winner as-of-yet to make it to the most important Sunday of the
season, Matt Ryan, is the criticism that he [Flacco] does not have what it
takes to join other Super Bowl winners.
The more important and
relevant statistic is how Flacco stood up this year. The Ravens went 10-6,
though this seems better than the late-season lull in Baltimore right before Ray
Lewis announced his retirement at the end of the season and the AFC juggernaut
gathered steam. He completed 317 of 531 passes (59.7 percent) for 3817 yards
over the course of 16 starts. (I realize that you know a regular season is 16
games, but it becomes important we when compare him to a fresher quarterback
who started half as many games.) He was fairly efficient, throwing 22
touchdowns to only 10 interceptions. He had an 87.7 Quarterback rating; a statistic
that I think has been given too much weight in the current NFL climate.
A pretty solid year for a
consistent quarterback chasing greatness.
Colin Kaepernick
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The 6’5” quarterback who came
out of Nevada-Reno has been spectacular this year. There was some speculation about
his game and field management when Jim Harbaugh first benched Alex Smith after
a concussion. I would think that the doubters, for the most part, have been
silenced by this point in the season. With Kaepernick at the helm, the 49ers
were able to do what they could not do last year: make the Super Bowl. In the 7
games that Colin started, San Francisco went 5-2. He made 136 out of 218 passes
(62.4 percent) for 1814 yards. He threw 10 touchdowns to only 3 interceptions.
His QBR of 98.3 is impressive, but I do not think it is as telling as many
people would like to believe.
Not bad for a second-year
back-up quarterback starting for a team in the Super Bowl.
So What?
Looking at the numbers, you
might shrug and say So What? The
numbers are pretty close and if Kaepernick had played a whole season his
numbers would be about the same or marginally higher. I could regale you with
statistical analysis (but this is not ESPN and I do not get paid as much as
John Hollinger), but needless to say a little goes a long way in terms of what
is significant.
There is a key difference
between these two quarterbacks that warrants mentioning: mobility. Both are
tall and athletic, but Kaepernick has a very similar game to RG3, Russell
Wilson, and Michael Vick. The threat of the Read-Option, even if it is only run
three times per game, gives defenses the fits. Jim Caldwell calling the offense
certainly gave the Ravens a much-needed boost in the passing game, but there are
only so many times that you can Ray Rice the ball on a first down before a defense knows
it’s coming and renders it ineffective. The 49ers have quietly created a
three-headed monster with a dynamic passing game (with Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, and an aging,
but spry, Randy Moss), a monster running game fronted by Frank Gore, and the
late year brilliance of a young Kaepernick.
I think we might be in for a
slugfest this Sunday after all….
More about the author: A psychologist, author, philosopher, freelance editor, and skeptic, Dan O’Brien has published several novels and currently has many in print, including: The End of the World Playlist, Bitten, The Journey, The Ocean and the Hourglass, The Portent, The Path of the Fallen, Book of Seth, and Cerulean Dreams.
Follow him on Twitter (@AuthorDanOBrien)
Visit his blog at http://thedanobrienproject.blogspot.com.
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